Atomic Ideas and Patterns
Strategic Thinking
Concept: Michael Watkins' Six Key Skills for Strategic Thinking
Pattern recognition
System analysis
Mental agility (cloud to ground thinking)
Structured problem solving
Visionary thinking
Political savvy (Sequencing Strategy)
Technology and Progress
Principle: Technology as a Driver of Value and Progress
The purpose of technology is to reduce scarcity
Technology theory of value (TTOV) is superior to labor theory of value
Progress is abstraction, reducing the number of things to think about
Technology changes microscopic leverage, expanding individual options
Insight: Early Perceptions of Technology
People often mistake the value of new technologies due to initial frivolous appearances
Power Dynamics and Trust
Concept: Powerful Agent Use of Hard Power Doomloop Flywheel
Loss of Trust → Decline in Soft Power → Less Voluntary Compliance → Increased Use of Hard Power → Further Reduction in Soft Power → More Reliance on Hard Power → Continued Loss of Trust (cycle repeats)
Yoga and Physical Techniques
Technique: Ninja Pop-up Alternative
Start with cobra pose, then move to scorpion
Use back leg momentum to create space for foot placement between hands
Sequence: Cobra → Pick line with eyes → Move feet
Philosophical Reflections
Insight: Multifaceted Nature of Self
Walt Whitman: "We contain multitudes"
Metaphor: Salt Crystallization
Howard Bloom's metaphor: Boil salt to dissolve, add a single grain, and all salt reappears
Represents finding one's community and the non-linear nature of progress
Principle: Wittgenstein's Approach to Meaning
"Don't look for meaning, look for use"
Insight: AI Limitations
AI provides who, what, when, maybe how, but not why
Financial and Economic Insights
Concept: End of Easy Money Period (Howard Marks)
Potential consequences: slower economic growth, eroding profit margins, less positive investor psychology, less reliable appreciation of ownership interests, inconsistent downward trend in borrowing costs, reduced leverage benefits, harder financing for businesses, higher default rates
Principle: Adaptability to Changing Circumstances
"When events change, I change my mind"
Concept: Power Laws in Various Domains
Human history: a handful of people carry most of the weight
Philosophy: "All of philosophy is a series of footnotes to Plato"
Personal relationships: 4-5 people have extreme power law effects on one's life
Languages: Most popular languages dominate usage
Attention: A few pieces of content carry most of the viewership
Thoughts: Breakthrough ideas are rare but impactful
Investing: Top 4% of publicly traded firms account for the entire US stock market gains
Time and Decision Making
Insight: Time as a Unique Asset
Time is the only asset where we don't know how much we have until we're dead
Principle: Value-Based vs. Options-Based Thinking
Orient around time, not money or resources
Engage the world based on values, not options
Technique: Decision-Making Across Time Scales
Good decisions make sense across different time scales (e.g., optimize for both a day and ten years)
Portfolio Strategies
Concept: Growth Portfolio
50% SP500 (Trend Followed), 40% Small Value Stocks, 10% Gold (Trend Followed)
Overweight equities, especially small cap value, during crisis environments
Concept: Inflation Portfolio
50% SP500 (trend followed), 10% Gold (Trend followed), 10% small cap value
Principle: Countercyclical Investing
Act countercyclically during market panics, loading up on riskier assets
Patterns and Connections
Cyclical Nature of Systems: The "Powerful Agent Use of Hard Power Doomloop Flywheel" and economic cycles both demonstrate self-reinforcing loops in different domains.
Importance of Adaptability: Howard Marks' quote about changing one's mind and the emphasis on adapting to demographic changes in healthcare both highlight the value of flexibility in thinking and strategy.
Power Law Distributions: This concept appears in multiple contexts, from human history and philosophy to investing and attention economics, suggesting it's a fundamental principle across various domains.
Time as a Central Concept: The importance of time management, decision-making across time scales, and the unique nature of time as an asset form a recurring theme.
Technology as a Transformative Force: The notes emphasize technology's role in value creation, progress, and potential future developments like AI and nuclear energy.
Dissonance
While there's emphasis on long-term thinking and legacy (e.g., "100-year vision for family wealth"), there's also discussion of rapid technological changes and the importance of adaptability, creating tension between stability and flexibility.
The notes discuss both the benefits of technology and its limitations (e.g., AI's inability to provide the "why"), highlighting a nuanced view of technological progress.